How to estimate what a property will earn on Airbnb

A projection an owner can check starts from comparable listings, not from a tool’s headline figure. Collect the nightly rates and booked nights of similar units nearby, month by month, and turn them into a low, likely and high case. Then subtract what comes off before the owner is paid: Airbnb’s 15.5% host fee and the VAT on it, cleaning, commission and running costs.⁶⁷ Check whether local rules cap the nights, and only then compare the result with long-term rent.

Key takeaways

Build from comparables first and use data tools second: AirDNA’s Rentalizer, for one, assumes 365 available nights and leaves out the host fee and taxes.¹
Show three scenarios by month, with the assumptions and the date on the page, never a single number.
Airbnb’s 15.5% host fee is charged on the nightly price and on fees such as cleaning, and in Belgium and the Netherlands Airbnb adds 21% VAT on that fee.⁶⁷
Night caps and principal residence rules come before any sum: in Brussels, a tourist residence that is the operator’s main residence may be open to guests at most four months a year.¹³
A fair comparison with long-term rent counts the costs a tenant would normally carry, and leaves tax questions to an accountant.

In this guide

What a good projection looks like
Where the data comes from
Step by step: from comparables to a monthly range
The cost stack in Europe
Rules that cap the numbers
Airbnb or long-term rent: the honest comparison
Presenting it to an owner
Choosing markets that will stay rentable
Questions people ask
Sources

What a good projection looks like

A good projection is one the owner can take apart: every figure points back to a comparable listing, a published fee or a rule on an official site. It has five parts:

Twelve months, not one annual figure. A city flat can be full in May and quiet in January. Seasonality is the first thing an owner will ask about.
Three scenarios. A low, a likely and a high case, each with its own nightly rate (ADR) and occupancy rate.
The full cost stack. From gross booking value down to what the owner keeps before income tax.
The rules check. Registration, night caps and residence rules for that address, with the link.
The assumptions and the date. Which comparables, which fee, which cap, checked on which day.

What it does not have: a single headline figure, or a screenshot from a data tool with no explanation.

Where the data comes from

You need two numbers per month for similar units: what they charge per booked night and how many nights they sell. There are three places to get them, and they work best together.

Comparable listings

Start by hand. Pick eight to twelve listings a guest choosing this property would also consider: same neighbourhood, same bedrooms and guests, similar standard and reviews.

For each one, note a weekday and a weekend price in a quiet and a busy month, and how open the calendar is. A closed date can be a booking or a night the owner blocked.

Airbnb gives hosts a view of this inside the app. In the Pricing tab of a listing’s calendar you can select up to 31 days and view the average prices of similar listings nearby on a map, filtered by booked or unbooked listings.³ Airbnb says it picks those listings on location, size, features, amenities, ratings, reviews and the other listings guests browse while considering yours.³ It shows prices, not earnings, and you need an existing listing to use it.

Market data tools

Data tools estimate occupancy and revenue for many listings at once. They save hours, but the headline figure hides its assumptions, so read how each tool calculates before you quote it.

What two market data tools say about their own figures (checked 15 September 2026)

Tool	How it picks comparables	What its figures include	What to correct for
AirDNA Rentalizer	Properties within about 15 km, chosen by closeness and by bedroom, bathroom and guest count, then weighted¹	Next 12 months of revenue, occupancy and ADR; revenue includes the cleaning fee¹	Assumes full availability for 365 days; excludes the host fee, other fees and taxes¹
AirDNA market figures	All short-term rentals in the market	Monthly revenue per listing that had at least one booking that month; occupancy as booked nights divided by nights available to be booked²⁰	Listings with no bookings are left out of the monthly average²
PriceLabs Market Dashboards	Comparison sets you build with more than 40 filters, such as location, bedrooms, amenities and ratings⁴	RevPAR, occupancy and ADR side by side, booking curves, lead time and future occupancy for the market⁴	Only as good as the comparison set you build

Two things follow from that table. First, a Rentalizer figure is a gross, full-availability figure: before Airbnb’s fee, before VAT on that fee, and before any night cap.¹ Second, a market average built only from listings that had bookings will look better than the typical listing, because the empty ones are not in it.² Both need correcting before an owner sees them, and tools change often, so note which tool and date you used.

Official statistics

Official figures will not tell you what one flat earns, but they tell you whether demand in a country or region is growing. Eurostat reports that guests spent 951.6 million nights in short-stay accommodation in the EU booked through Airbnb, Booking or Expedia in 2025, 11.4% more than in 2024.⁵ Use this kind of figure for context in the conversation with an owner, never as an input for their unit.

Step by step: from comparables to a monthly range

Check the rules for the address first. Registration, a night cap, a principal residence rule or a local stop on new holiday homes can end the conversation before any sum. See the section on caps below.
Choose your comparables. Eight to twelve listings a guest would weigh against this one, as described above. Write down why each one is in.
Record rates and occupancy by month. For each comparable, an average nightly rate and an estimate of booked nights per month, from your own checks or a data tool. Correct tool figures for availability.
Set the likely case. For each month, take the middle of the comparables, not the best performer. Adjust for real differences you can name, such as more reviews, a better location or no lift.
Set the low and high cases. The low case assumes a slow start with few reviews; the high case is the top third of the comparables, not the single best one.
Work out booked nights and stays. Booked nights are nights available multiplied by occupancy. Stays are booked nights divided by the average length of stay you see in the market, because every stay means a cleaning.
Add revenue. Nights multiplied by ADR, plus cleaning fees collected. That is gross booking value. Also calculate RevPAR, revenue per available night, so the three scenarios can be compared on one number.
Subtract the cost stack. Platform fees, VAT, cleaning, commission and running costs, as in the next section.
Write down the assumptions and the date. Which comparables, which fee, which rules page, checked when.

If the unit will use dynamic pricing, your monthly ADR is an average of many nightly prices. Use the average, and say so.

The cost stack in Europe

Between gross booking value and what the owner keeps sits a stack of costs, and several are easy to miss.

Costs between gross booking value and what the owner keeps

Cost	Typical basis	Where to find the real figure
Airbnb host fee	15.5% for most hosts, on the nightly price and fees you add such as cleaning; hosts in the EEA adjust their prices for it by 13 October 2026⁶	The price breakdown of each booking; Airbnb vs Booking.com for hosts
VAT on Airbnb’s fee	21% of the fee in Belgium and in the Netherlands; a VAT-registered host who adds a VAT number may not be charged it, but may have to declare the VAT themselves⁷	Airbnb’s VAT help page and your accountant
Booking.com commission	A percentage of the total booking amount, including the room rate and fees such as cleaning; the rate is in your agreement⁸	The property’s contract or the extranet
VAT on the letting	Only where the letting is VAT-liable: 12% in Belgium since 1 March 2026, 21% in the Netherlands since 1 January 2026⁹¹⁰	An accountant, and VAT on accommodation
Tourist tax	Set by the city, usually per guest per night or per unit	The city’s own page; Airbnb rules in Belgium and the Netherlands
Cleaning	Per turnover, often passed on to the guest as a cleaning fee	Quotes from cleaners for this unit’s size
Management commission	A percentage of an agreed base	The agreement; how the commission base works
Running costs	Utilities, internet, consumables, insurance, software, repairs	The owner’s bills, per month

Three points trip people up. The cleaning fee a guest pays is not free money that passes straight through: on Airbnb the 15.5% host fee is charged on it too.⁶ The VAT on the host fee is real money for an owner who is not VAT-registered: 15.5% plus 21% of 15.5% is 18.755% of the subtotal.⁶⁷ And tourist tax only reduces the owner’s income if it is included in the nightly price instead of added on top.

Running costs are easy to leave blank: a long-term tenant usually pays energy and internet, but with short stays the owner does.

Watch out: Never show an owner only the high case

An owner remembers the first number they see. Show only the best scenario and every normal month afterwards looks like a failure. Show the low case first, the likely case in the middle and the high case last, all on one page.

Rules that cap the numbers

A night cap or a principal residence rule changes the projection more than any pricing decision. Check it before you open a spreadsheet, and put the link in the projection.

Amsterdam. Holiday letting means letting your own home while you are away, and only a resident registered at the address can get the permit. The cap is 30 nights a year.¹¹ Since 1 April 2026 it is 15 nights in eight neighbourhoods: Burgwallen-Nieuwe Zijde, De Weteringschans, Grachtengordel-West, Grachtengordel-Zuid, Haarlemmerbuurt, Jordaan, Nieuwmarkt/Lastage and Oude Pijp.¹² An empty flat does not qualify for holiday letting, so check the city’s other permit types before you project anything there.
Brussels. A tourist residence that is the operator’s main residence may be open to guests for at most four months a year.¹³
Ghent. For new tourist accommodation since 11 April 2019, letting as a secondary use needs no planning permit: under 50% of the floor area, at most 100 m² and at most 3 rooms for 9 people. Letting as the main use of an apartment, a studio or a large house is limited to 4 periods a year of up to 30 consecutive days, and is not allowed in houses under 220 m², which the city protects. Turning an apartment into tourist accommodation without a time limit is not permitted.¹⁴

The effect is not subtle. At €100 a night, a 30-night cap limits accommodation revenue to €3,000 a year even if every allowed night is booked. A four-month limit leaves at most about a third of the year, fewer than the 237 booked nights in the likely case of the example below. For registration, fire safety and the rules city by city, use Airbnb rules in Belgium and the Netherlands. The EU framework for registration numbers is explained in the guide to Regulation 2024/1028.

Airbnb or long-term rent: the honest comparison

Most owners are asking one question: will I keep more than a tenant would pay? Answer it over a full year, with income after costs against the rent.

Worked example: A one-bedroom flat, three scenarios against €1,000 a month in rent (illustration)

The inputs are example values, not market data: the unit may be let all 365 nights, the average stay is 3 nights, the €50 cleaning fee per stay is paid in full to the cleaner, all bookings come through Airbnb at 15.5% plus 21% VAT on the fee, the owner is not VAT-registered and the letting carries no VAT, commission is 20% of accommodation revenue, running costs are €200 a month, and the long-term rent offered is €1,000 a month.⁶⁷ Booked nights and stays are rounded to whole numbers.

Line, per year	Low	Likely	High
ADR and occupancy	€85 at 50%	€100 at 65%	€115 at 75%
Booked nights and stays	182 nights, 61 stays	237 nights, 79 stays	274 nights, 91 stays
Accommodation revenue	€15,470.00	€23,700.00	€31,510.00
Cleaning fees	€3,050.00	€3,950.00	€4,550.00
Gross booking value	€18,520.00	€27,650.00	€36,060.00
Airbnb host fee, 15.5%	−€2,870.60	−€4,285.75	−€5,589.30
VAT on the fee, 21%	−€602.83	−€900.01	−€1,173.75
Cleaner	−€3,050.00	−€3,950.00	−€4,550.00
Commission, 20% of accommodation revenue	−€3,094.00	−€4,740.00	−€6,302.00
Running costs, 12 × €200	−€2,400.00	−€2,400.00	−€2,400.00
Owner keeps, before income tax	€6,502.57	€11,374.24	€16,044.95
Per month	€541.88	€947.85	€1,337.08
RevPAR (accommodation revenue ÷ nights the unit may be let, here 365)	€42.38	€64.93	€86.33
Against €1,000 a month in rent	€458.12 less	€52.15 less	€337.08 more

In this illustration the likely case earns slightly less than the rent, and only the high case clearly beats it. A different flat, city or fee base gives a different answer, which is the point of running the numbers.

This is an illustration built from round example numbers, not a prediction of what any property will earn.

To try it with your own unit, open the revenue calculator with these values filled in, check the VAT on the platform fee (21% by default), and change one input at a time. The calculator does not round nights and stays to whole numbers, so its figures differ from the table by a few euros. For a unit under a cap, lower the nights, for example to 30 nights a year.

What the example leaves out matters as much as what it includes:

The owner’s time and yours. Guest messages, check-ins and problems at night do not appear in the table.
Furnishing and replacements. A short-stay flat needs furniture, linen, kitchen equipment and regular replacements.
Empty periods. A long-term let can also stand empty between tenants, and a short-stay unit can lose weeks to repairs.
Income tax, which works differently. In the Netherlands a second home generally falls in box 3, but services connected to the letting, such as providing linen, can move the whole rental income into box 1.¹⁸ In Belgium, according to a tax guide prepared for Airbnb in November 2024, letting a furnished property gives both immovable and movable income, and a short furnished letting can become VAT-liable when services such as reception, weekly linen changes or daily breakfast come with it.¹⁹ How that works out for one owner is a question for their accountant, not for a projection.

Presenting it to an owner

Put the projection on one page the owner can read in five minutes and keep.

The address, the date and “not a promise”. Write “Projection based on comparable listings, checked on 15 September 2026. An illustration, not a promise” at the top, with your own date.
Twelve months in a small table, low, likely and high, then the yearly total and the monthly average.
The cost stack in plain lines, so the owner sees the Airbnb fee, the VAT on it and your commission separately.
The assumptions in a short list: which comparables, which occupancy, which fee, which rules page.
The rules check with its link, including anything you could not confirm.
The long-term rent comparison, with the costs the example leaves out named underneath.

Bring the comparables with you: when an owner asks where €100 comes from, the listings answer it. If you are still looking for that first owner, finding your first management client covers how to open the conversation.

Choosing markets that will stay rentable

A projection is a snapshot. When you choose where to build a management business, look at where the rules are heading.

Amsterdam cut the cap from 30 to 15 nights in eight neighbourhoods on 1 April 2026, and its rules allow a further step.¹¹¹²
Barcelona decided not to renew its 10,000 tourist apartment licences in November 2028, according to Catalan News in March 2025.¹⁵
Lisbon amended its regulation in December 2025: where short-term lets reach 5% or more of permanent dwellings in an area, new registrations are generally prohibited.¹⁶
Belgium raised VAT on furnished accommodation from 6% to 12% on 1 March 2026, which matters wherever the letting is VAT-liable.⁹

Mid-term letting, furnished stays of a month or more, is sometimes offered as a hedge against caps. Check the national rules before you count on it. In the Netherlands the government announced in November 2025 that it wants to limit short-stay contracts to 30 days, and the public consultation on that bill ran from 2 July to 28 August 2026; the bill still has to go to parliament.¹⁷²¹ Longer stays would then fall under ordinary tenancy law, so check how a furnished stay of a month or more would be treated before you plan around it.

Favour markets where the low case still works under tighter rules. For how the three business models compare when rules tighten, see co-hosting vs rental arbitrage vs buying.

Questions people ask

How much can I earn renting my apartment on Airbnb?

Nobody can give an honest figure without looking at your street, your unit and your local rules. Take the nightly rates and booked nights of similar listings nearby for each month, build a low, likely and high case, then subtract Airbnb’s 15.5% host fee and the VAT on it, cleaning, commission and running costs.⁶⁷ If your city caps the nights, apply the cap before anything else.

What is a good occupancy rate for an Airbnb?

There is no single good rate: it depends on the market, the season and your price. A high occupancy at a low price can earn less than a lower occupancy at a higher price, which is why professionals compare RevPAR, revenue per available night, as well as occupancy. Compare your unit with similar listings in the same months, and check how a data tool counts occupancy, because AirDNA divides booked nights by nights available to be booked, not by every day of the year.²⁰

Is Airbnb more profitable than long-term renting?

Sometimes, and not always. Short-term letting brings platform fees, cleaning, commission, running costs a tenant would normally pay, furnishing and your time, and in some places a night cap or a principal residence rule.⁶¹¹¹³ Compare the owner’s income after all of those with the long-term rent, and ask an accountant how each option is taxed for that owner.

Are Airbnb income calculators accurate?

Treat them as a starting point. AirDNA’s Rentalizer, for example, projects the next twelve months from comparable listings within about 15 km, assumes the unit is available all 365 days, and leaves out the host fee, other fees and taxes.¹ Check its comparables by hand and correct for availability, fees and local rules before you use the figure.

Which costs do owners forget in a projection?

The VAT on Airbnb’s host fee, the platform fee charged on the cleaning fee, utilities and internet a tenant would normally pay, consumables, insurance, software, furnishing and replacements, and income tax.⁶⁷ Tourist tax matters too when it is included in the price instead of added on top.

Sources

All sources checked 15 September 2026.

AirDNA Help Center, “Rentalizer - Revenue Calculator”, Market data vendor, updated June 2026
AirDNA Help Center, “How does AirDNA calculate revenue?”, Market data vendor, updated May 2026
Airbnb Resource Center, “How to compare the average prices of similar listings”, Updated 11 November 2024
PriceLabs, “Market Dashboards”, Pricing and data vendor, product page
Eurostat, “Tourism nights booked via platforms hit nearly 1 billion”, News release, 1 April 2026
Airbnb Resource Center, “Simplifying service fees on Airbnb”, Published 7 July 2026, updated 24 August 2026
Airbnb Help Centre, “Value Added Tax (VAT) and how it applies to you”
Booking.com for Partners, “Understanding your commission”
Vlaanderen Vakantieland (Toerisme Vlaanderen), “Info btw hervorming logies”, In Dutch
Belastingdienst, “Vanaf 1 januari 2026: btw-tarief logies omhoog naar 21%”, 30 October 2025, in Dutch
Gemeente Amsterdam, “Huisvestingsverordening Amsterdam 2024”, Articles 3.7.3 and 3.9.5, in Dutch
Gemeente Amsterdam, “Eerste aanwijzingsbesluit 15-nachtencriterium vakantieverhuur Amsterdam (Gemeenteblad 2026, 151001)”, Adopted 24 March 2026, in force 1 April 2026, in Dutch
Brussels Economy and Employment, “Conditions and obligations for tourist residences”
Stad Gent, “Visienota informeel toeristisch logies”, Applies from 11 April 2019, in Dutch
Catalan News, “Barcelona mayor welcomes Constitutional Court ruling on tourist apartment restrictions”, News, 14 March 2025
Cuatrecasas, “Amendment to Lisbon's Municipal Regulation on Short-term Letting”, Law firm briefing, 11 December 2025
Rijksoverheid, “Maatregelen voor beter onderscheid tussen huur en short stay”, Government news, 14 November 2025, in Dutch
Belastingdienst, “Ik verhuur mijn vakantiehuis of andere 2e woning”, In Dutch
Airbnb, “Tax guide: Belgium”, Prepared by an independent third-party firm, November 2024
AirDNA Help Center, “How does AirDNA calculate occupancy rate?”, Market data vendor
Rijksoverheid, “Consultatie start voor wetsvoorstel passende huurcontracten”, Government news, 2 July 2026, in Dutch

We check every figure against the sources above. Spotted something out of date? Email systemen@hostproacademy.com with the guide title.

How to estimate what a property will earn on Airbnb: a projection an owner can check